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May 13, 2020

Key Points

  • At the March lows, stocks were discounting the kind of economic collapse we’re currently in the midst of; but the subsequent rally is less about economic optimism, and more about Fed-provided liquidity.

  • The stock market’s V-shaped rebound is unlikely...

April 10, 2020

Key Points

  • COVID-19-relevant leading indicators are painting a bleak economic picture.

  • Murkiness in the outlook has resulted in an incredibly wide (and dour) outlook for second quarter real GDP.

  • Beyond the obvious short-term implications of COVID-19 and it...

November 18, 2019

Halloween brought more treats than tricks as November brought the first real S&P 500 break out of its long and volatile trading range dating back to January 2018. Hopes for a United States-China trade deal and ample liquidity courtesy of the Federal Reserve have been i...

October 30, 2019

As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%; while hinting it may be in pause mode in the near-term. The committee also lowered the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER) by 25 bas...

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