SCHWAB MARKET COMMENTARY

May 13, 2020

Key Points

  • At the March lows, stocks were discounting the kind of economic collapse we’re currently in the midst of; but the subsequent rally is less about economic optimism, and more about Fed-provided liquidity.

  • The stock market’s V-shaped rebound is unlikely to be matched by a V-shaped economic rebound.

  • Longer-term, we will likely see the U.S. economy shift from consumption-driven to investment-driven.

The sp...

April 10, 2020

Key Points

  • COVID-19-relevant leading indicators are painting a bleak economic picture.

  • Murkiness in the outlook has resulted in an incredibly wide (and dour) outlook for second quarter real GDP.

  • Beyond the obvious short-term implications of COVID-19 and its economic impact, there are longer-term secular changes likely coming.

I participated in a Reuters Twitter Chat for an hour last week—one of the fastest-paced...

November 18, 2019

Halloween brought more treats than tricks as November brought the first real S&P 500 break out of its long and volatile trading range dating back to January 2018. Hopes for a United States-China trade deal and ample liquidity courtesy of the Federal Reserve have been in focus; although economic data is not confirming the market’s latest advance. Bulls are saying the market is right and economic data will imminently (or eventua...

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” 
     ― Benjamin Franklin

Sound and fury

While volatility has subsided of late, U.S. stocks remain in a wide trading range and have yet to surpass their July highs. Mixed earnings and economic data; persistent skepticism surrounding a U.S.-China trade truce and Brexit; and monetary policy’s perceived impotence have kept equities around the world from breaking out to...

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